YEREVAN, May 26. /ARKA/. According to preliminary figures, economic activity in Armenia fell 1.7% in January-April 2020, compared to the same period a year before, the National Statistical Committee of the republic reports.
In April, compared with March, the economic activity indicator went 13.5% down, and, compared with April 2019, 17.2% down.
According to the data presented, in the first four months of this year, industrial output amounted to approximately 585,213.7 million drams showing an increase of 4.2% compared with the same period a year earlier, while compared to the previous month, it has shrunk 8.2%, and compared to April 2019, 8.6%.
Only by the services sector enjoyed growth in the mentioned period, but it was a slight growth – 0.1%. The volume of the service sector (excluding trade) for January-April 2020 amounted to 585,439.2 million drams (an increase of 0.1%), while in April the indicator decreased by 11.2% compared to March, and in April by April 2019 – by 15.9%.
According to the statistical report, the turnover of domestic trade in January-April 2020 amounted to 816,087.4 million drams showing a 8.6% decline, and compared to the previous month, the figure decreased by 29.4%, and in April 2020 compared to April 2019 – by 33.1%.
The construction sector’s result, according to the data for January-April 2020, amounted to 54,029.2 million drams (a decline of 21.9%), while in April compared to March 2020, the figure decreased by 40.6%, and in April 2020 compared to April 2019 – by 51%.
The agriculture sector’s output for January-April is not indicated.
According to the National Statistics Committee, in the first quarter of 2020, GDP growth in Armenia amounted to 3.8% compared to the same period in 2019, reaching 1 trillion 241 billion drams in absolute terms.
On April 29, the National Assembly of Armenia approved the budget indicators revision prompted by the spread of COVID-19. Given the adverse impact of the situation with the coronavirus, the budget forecast for GDP was reduced to a decline of 2% (previously, the budget had a growth of 4.9% for the current year), and the deficit was increased to 340 billion drams, or 5% of GDP (previously 2.3%).
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in its new macroeconomic forecast, predicts that Armenia’s GDP will drop by 3.5% in 2020 due to the economic impact of the coronavirus. It is expected that the Armenian economy will recover in 2021, recording a growth of 5.5%.
In its spring Review of the Economics of Europe and Central Asia, the World Bank predicts that according to the optimistic scenario, the growth of the Armenian economy in 2020 will be 1.7%, and inflation – 3%. According to forecasts in 2021, Armenia’s GDP growth will be 4.5%, and inflation – 3.5%. And for 2022, the Armenian economy’s growth is projected at 4.7%, with inflation at 4%.
The International Monetary Fund expects a 1.5% slowdown in the Armenian economy in 2020. Such a forecast is made in the April IMF survey World Economic Outlook, April 2020. The authors of the report predict that in 2021, an increase of 4.8% will be registered in the Armenian economy.
Fitch Ratings International Rating Agency predicts that the shock from coronavirus will slow down the growth of Armenia’s GDP from 7.6% in 2019 to 0.5% in 2020.
According to the latest Eurasian Development Bank’s forecast, in 2020 Armenia’s GDP growth is expected to decline by 1.7%. ($ 1 – AMD 482.24).