3rd Update, Saturday AM: Universal’s Night School is coming in lower than its expected $30M with a three-day at $25.9M off a $9.3M Friday (including previews), and Warner Bros. Yeti family toon Smallfoot isn’t far behind with a revised industry estimate of $23.6M.
If the Karey Kirkpatrick-Jason Reisig-directed feature toon swells more than 60% tomorrow over its $6.4M Friday (which includes $850K Thursday night previews), it may just nudge Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish to second place.
Last weekend, Amblin’s The House With a Clock In Its Walls saw a 47% surge on Saturday catapulting its weekend estimate from $24.6M on Friday to a near $27M opening by Sunday EOD. The Eli Roth-helmed family feature is taking third with an estimated $12.3M, -54%, steeper than projected as its in Smallfoot’s shadow.
Still, even though Night School is coming in under its tracking, any studio would envy a $25M+ opening for a comedy in this marketplace, especially with this pic’s 29% Rotten Tomatoes reviews. Uni already owns the year’s previous opening high for a comedy, the R-rated teen comedy Blockers ($20.5M). Night School‘s opening is also very good in regards to the pic’s production cost which is net under $30M.
The weekend’s top 10 per industry estimates:
|WEEKEND B.O. FOR SEPT. 28-30|
In regards to Night School dimming the lights, know that these adult comedies make their cash in the late night hours, so Saturday and Sunday morning could show a different story for the Malcolm D. Lee-directed title. Some blame the bad reviews for slowing Night School down, which is the bane of every comedy’s existence, however, note that other critically slammed Hart movies such as Get Hard and the Ride Alongs beat their reviews at the B.O. with $30M-plus openings. Universal sold Night School as a broad comedy which could cross over various demos, and while it looks like an R-rated comedy particularly with the pungent Hart and Haddish, it’s PG-13 in an effort to enroll a younger crowd.
Even though Night School has a great social media wattage of 214M, which is 95% greater than the average African American comedy, further bolstered by Hart’s powerhouse social following (121M across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram) and Haddish’s (5M), entertainment data analyst RelishMix noticed a mixed reaction among potential moviegoers reporting, “While Hart and Haddish fans are definitely lining up, other comedy moviegoers and a certain high brow contingent are advising they’re skipping the film because of the negative stereotypes it celebrates…It’s arguable that this contingent is just not getting the joke, but the volume is palpable in a year that saw Black Panther dominate the box office. It’s also possible that Hart’s star has hit its zenith, with some of his fans claiming that they still find him funny, but his shtick is getting a little old.”
Those moviegoers who got off the couch and went to Night School loved it with an A- CinemaScore, which is the same grade that Hart’s Central Intelligence earned, above Ride Along 2 (B+) and Get Hard (B), yet filing below Girls Trip‘s (A+) and Ride Along (A). PostTrak audiences gave the movie 3.5 stars.
Smallfoot also gets an A- which is the same as Warner Bros.’ Storks and better than DreamWorks Animation’s Captain Underpants’ B+. PostTrak exits loved the Yeti movie at 4 stars. The movie based on Sergio Pablos’ book Yeti Tracks has impressed critics with its “thoughtful lesson about tolerance, division and learning to see from the perspective of others” per CNN’s Brian Lowry while the Washington Post‘s Jane Horwitz writes, “The debunking of a creation myth isn’t the sort of narrative that usually drives an animated Hollywood comedy. Yet after a rather bland beginning, that is exactly what sets Smallfoot apart, along with some inspired slapstick stunts. This entertaining fantasy has intellectual ballast, but it’s cleverly disguised.”
RelishMix compliments Warners on getting the fun message out in a loud way on social media –the pic has an enormous social media universe that’s close to 400M across FB, Twitter, IG and YouTube views–with LeBron James, Channing Tatum and Zendaya contributing 61% of the movie’s social reach. In total, the activated cast counts over 245M social media followers, “one of the most social casts we’ve seen in months, maybe since Infinity War,” exclaims RelishMix. The breadth of Smallfoot‘s big foot on social is further propelling the positive word of mouth from those who’ve caught early screenings.
James is the voice of the Yeti Gwangi, and RelishMix is citing the “LeBron James” effect in impacting the pic’s social media marketing for the better. “The Los Angeles Lakers basketball star shared clips and pics of his family’s visit to the Yeti Village, which Warner Bros constructed as a real life experience for families to enjoy (in So-Cal),” reports the social metrics corp. James’ appearance with Tatum on Ellen where they performed ridiculous stunts has drawn 1.5M YouTube views since Sept. 12.
There’s a trick to making microbudget mushroom at the box office and time and time again, Blumhouse and Universal (and New Line whose Nun is earning $5.4M in 5th place and $108.9M total in weekend 4) know how to take films that were made for crumbs and send their ticket sales skyward. CBS and Lionsgate’s Hell Fest with a production cost of $5.5M before P&A wasn’t going after a wide audience but a narrow genre fanbase of men over 25, plus females 17-24. CBS/Lionsgate did a lot of stunting including a Six Flags partnership with replicas of the film’s maze at top parks, a retro ’80s trailer, big TV spot splashes built around American Horror Story, The Purge (series) and Fear The Walking Dead. Additionally cable was used to pursue young females via MTV, VH1, Bravo, E!, Telemundo and Univision with a robust audio campaign aimed to get those millennials on Spotify and Pandora. Six Flags also supported Hell Fest with local TV and digital advertising. In addition Hell Fest was promoted at numerous haunted houses, mazes, escape rooms and genre conventions including DragonCon (Atlanta), Wizard World (Chicago), Midsummer Scream (LA), ScareLA and more. There was also an Unity 8-bit interactive ad game. Yet despite all these efforts, Hell Fest is ringing up a meager $4.7M. Critics can make the difference in propelling original horror films and it appeared this one was shielded from them with only 11 reviews reporting a 35% RT score led by IndieWire’s Michael Nordine blasting, “If it were any good, it could have been the movie of the moment. Instead, it’ll have been forgotten by Halloween.” RelishMix says about the online chatter, “Fans of the genre name a myriad of movies that they’ve seen that seem to be exactly what Hell Fest is offering. This majority contingent of convo suggests that they’ll wait for the after market, should they decide to see Hell Fest at all.” Hell Fest gets a C CinemaScore and two stars on PostTrak, so that tells you what the audience thinks about it.
PureFlix’s new label Pinnacle Peak Pictures will distribute titles that feature inspirational stories. But their modern re-telling of Little Women with its updated fresh-face conceit and Lea Thompson isn’t enough to create a stampede with only $1M at 643 locations. Critics aren’t fans at 38% and that’s what you need if you’re going to make a dent with this Louisa May Alcott reboot.
Meanwhile, last weekend’s entries are in free-fall with Briarcliff Entertainment’s Fahrenheit 11/9 down 63% with an estimated $1.1M and running total of $5.1M. Don’t blame anti-Trump fatigue, the movie went way too wide at 1,719 theaters. It’s a Michael Moore doc, not a Steven Spielberg drama. Last weekend, the top 10% of the doc’s runs made close to 40% of the pic’s business; proof that it was best kept as a specialty engagement. If that was the case, the headlines would be marveling over the theater average. The pic’s grosses are holding up in key locations such as Lincoln Square and LA’s Landmark. Amazon’s Life Itself is down 55% with $966K and a 10-day total of $3.9M while NEON/AGBO’s Assassination Nation is bleeding -80% with $209K and a $1.7M running gross by Sunday.
On the specialty side, National Geographic’s survival doc Free Solo about Alex Honnold becoming the first person to ever free solo climb Yosemite’s 3,000ft high El Capitan Wall sans ropes or safety gear looks to be notching the best theater average of the year to date with $67K or $268K at four theaters. That’s higher than the $65K opening screen average of A24’s Eighth Grade. Fox Searchlight’s Robert Redford swan song The Old Man and The Gun has a current estimated theater average of $28K or $141K at five NY and LA locations.
2nd Update, Friday 11:41AM: Early read here on Universal’s Night School which is tracking for a $9.5M opening day and a weekend that’s between $27M-$29M. While $30M would be a sweet take, that’s still an impressive number in these times for a comedy, Uni had the previous best opening this year with its R-rated teen pic Blockers at $20.6M.
Warner Bros. animated pic Smallfoot will own second with a $6M Friday (a few cents more than their 2016 Storks $5.7M opening day), and a three-day that’s between $20M and $22.5M. Two films in the final weekend of September, opening to $20M, seriously, exhibitors aren’t complaining especially with this month on track to be the second best ever with around $621M after last year’s record $698.5M.
Amblin’s via Uni The House With a Clock In Its Walls looking at a second weekend estimate of $13.7M, -48%, for a 10-day of $46M. Saturday and Sunday matinees are the power times for both Smallfoot and House.
Lionsgate’s A Simple Favor looks to continue to pull in women with an estimated weekend of $7.3M, -29% for a running total in weekend 3 of $43.77M. That’s ahead of Blake Lively’s previous LG/Lakeshore release, the romantic drama The Age of Adaline ($42.6M) Today the Paul Feig-directed pic looks to make $2.3M, -30% from a week ago.
CBS and Lionsgate’s Hell Fest is landing in 5th with a $2.2M opening day, including $435K previews from last night, and an opening between $4M-$6M. The R-rated horror pic from Gregory Plotkin only cost $5.5M to make with Tucker Tooley co-financing.
More genre: 20th Century Fox’s The Predator eyes third weekend in the $3M-$4M range, -62% with a running total by Sunday stateside of $47.9M. Predators, the previous Robert Rodriguez-produced chapter from July 2010, ended its domestic box office run at $52M, so this latest version is closing in on that figure.
1st Update, 7:12AM: Universal’s Night School threw its doors open for session last night, ringing up $1.35 million at 2,500 theaters with showtimes that began at 7 PM.
With a projected opening weekend of $30M at 3,010 theaters, the Tiffany Haddish-Kevin Hart PG-13 movie is poised to be a box office anomaly for comedies, which have suffered greatly in recent months: The last big openings for a comedy were last year’s R-rated Girls Trip with Haddish ($31.2M, also a career record box office opening for Night School director Malcolm D. Lee) and Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg’s Daddy’s Home 2 ($29.6M).
Fandango is reporting that advance ticket sales for Night School are outpacing previous Hart comedies, the PG-13 Central Intellgience ($35.5M opening) and Ride Along 2 ($35.2M), at the same point in their sales cycle. Night School is 26% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes, but that dismal grade won’t mess up its business this weekend. For R-rated raunchy fare, it’s another story.
Night School‘s preview last night came in higher than Hart’s-Ice Cube Ride Along movies (part 2 scored $1.26M and part 1 made $1.06M), but filed under Central Intelligence‘s $1.835M, the R-rated Hart-Ferrell comedy Get Hard ($1.8M), and Haddish’s Girls Trip which made $1.7M last July (many will say it’s a female-geared R-rated comedy, but the pic wound up playing broad).
For the second weekend in a row, Universal is expected to notch the No. 1 spot after last weekend’s Amblin movie The House With a Clock In Its Walls made $26.6M. That movie is set to ease 40% in Weekend 2 with around $16M, raising its 10-day cume by Sunday to $48.2M. Last night House made $1M at 3,592 locations, bringing its first-week tally to $32.2M.
Warner Bros Animation title Smallfoot is now tracking between $25M-$27M at 4,131 venues and held 4 PM previews last night, earning $850,000, which is $10K higher than House’s Thursday night previews last week. The pic also beat the previews of DreamWorks Animation’s Captain Underpants which earned $650K, and WB’s own animated Storks which made $435K before a $21.3M opening in September 2016. Smallfoot has a 75% fresh RT score, higher than House‘s 66% fresh and Storks’ 65% fresh.
CBS/Lionsgate has the Gale Anne Hurd- and Tucker Tooley-produced R-rated horror title Hell Fest, which kicked off last night with $435K. It’s looking at a $5M-$8M opening at 2,297 venues.
Pinnacle Peak via PureFlix has the modern-day reboot of Louisa May Alcott’s Little Women from filmmaker Clare Niederpruem, which at 643 venues is estimated at $1M.