Can the Chinese economy maintain growth rate of around 6 percent in 2020? There are many analyses and discussions as 2019 comes to an end, and there are more forecasts that China’s GDP growth rate will fall below 6 percent next year. Some scholars with an official background made such predictions publicly, increasing people’s anticipation that the economic situation next year may be more severe than this year.
Based on various scholars’ analysis, the Chinese economy’s downward pressure has not been completely released, and the trend may last some time. China has the ability to maintain growth of 6 percent through strong stimulus, but that would yield negative effects. Is it worthwhile?
Scholars generally believe that China has made progress in adjusting the country’s economic structure and that China’s economic quality has improved. This is also what most Chinese people have experienced. But the problem is how much the economy will affect employment, social confidence and restrain people’s consumption if it continues to decline. These uncertainties cause concerns.
Stable growth should be the primary goal of China’s economy for a period of time. But the measures to stabilize growth should be in line with the market economy and should yield minimum side effects.
Stabilizing growth should be a highly active effort by the Chinese government and society and should be a practical and realistic process. It should maximize China’s release of its economic capacity, instead of an act only to stabilize social confidence.
Much potential in the Chinese economy can be further tapped, but there are still many policy obstacles in our society.
Some local governments haven’t devoted enough energy to economic construction and lack a clear understanding of the political significance of economic work.
It is hoped that the tremendous economic downward pressure will spur further reforms, further emancipate our minds, and ensure that the economic growth is in full and deep operation.
China’s major economic tasks have never been achieved only through economic means, but have also been accompanied by necessary political consensus and strong mobilization. Amid the trade war and economic downturn, developing the economy is currently the top political issue of the country.
To develop the economy, activating the society in every regard is needed. The initiative for investment and consumption is of great importance. But initiative in another aspect cannot be ignored: the indispensable role of local governments in promoting economic growth.
In the past, local governments were in a race for economic growth with each other, which had produced some problems. But in general, it has played a positive role.
It is believed that by releasing and strengthening internal motivation, it’s possible to open up additional space for growth. Its effects are worth looking forward to, and the strong stimulus can be avoided. This work orientation should by no means be neglected.
Chinese society should neither secure the growth of 6 percent through strong stimulus nor accept the inertia of a growth rate below 6 percent. We should take active and rational actions.