Armenian central bank expects 7.5 percent economic growth for 2019

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YEREVAN, February 10. /ARKA/. Armenia’s economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2019 appeared to be beyond expectations, driven largely by high growth in the services sector, according to the minutes of a January 24 meeting of the Central Bank’s Board.

“Thus, the economic activity in January-November 2019, when compared to the same time span of the previous year amounted to 7.5%. This in mind, the Central Bank revised its growth forecast and expects that the economic growth for the full year will be within this range,” the regulator said.

It said in the fourth quarter, domestic demand also remained high, driven by the growth of private consumption, supported to a large extent by the ongoing stimulating monetary policy, which was reflected in the high growth of lending to the economy – by about 19% per year, with the bulk being loans provided in Armenian drams.

At the end of the year, fiscal policy also stimulated domestic demand, despite the fact that the size of the impact was slightly lower than expected.

The regulator said also that a stimulating fiscal policy is planned for 2020, the size of the impact of which will depend on the implementation process, in particular, if high rates of tax collection continue, the fiscal impulse will be less stimulating than expected.

The government’s growth projection for 2019 is 4.9% .

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