The World Bank has projected Turkey’s economy to expand by 0.5% this year, 3 percentage points lower than the pre-coronavirus estimate.
The uptick in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be supported by “strong” government stimulus, the bank said in its Spring 2020 Economic Update for Europe and Central Asia late Wednesday.
Pointing to the country’s growth last year on the back of a strong fourth quarter, driven by private consumption, the bank said COVID-19 imperils both stability and growth prospects.
The bank estimated that growth will pick up steam in 2021-22 to hit 4%.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey’s economy posted a growth of 0.9% in 2019.
Turkey’s year-end inflation rate is forecasted at 11% in 2020, driven by declining energy prices, exchange rate pressures and monetary easing, the World Bank report said.
Inflation will fall to 9% next year and 8.5% in 2022, it projected.
The country’s end of 2019 inflation rate was 11.84%, according to TurkStat. Annual inflation in March was 11.86%, says TurkStat data.
Last September Ankara targeted inflation for this year to be 8.5%, while the Central Bank had forecasted 8.2%.
“The general government fiscal deficit is projected to expand sharply to 4.5% of GDP in 2020 as the authorities combat the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on the economy, and narrow to 2.9% of GDP by 2022,” added the World Bank report.