YEREVAN, November 3. /ARKA/. Armenian economy will decline by 6.8% by the end of 2020, but it is expected to increase to a positive growth of 4.8% in 2021, Finance Minister Atom Janjughazyan said on Monday, presenting the draft state budget for 2021 to parliamentary commissions.
He said the draft budget had been developed by mid-September taking into account the degree of uncertainty at that time and against the background of optimistic forecasts for the growth of the world economy by 3.5%.
According to him, during the year – in April, June and October, the forecasts for global economic growth were revised, which categorically changed the expectations for 2020-2022, and according to estimates, a decline in more than 170 countries this year is inevitable.
“According to our forecasts, the economic decline in Armenia by the end of 2020 was expected to be 6%, but it was revised to 6.8%, where the additional decline as a result of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh was estimated at 0.8 percentage points. And for 2021, the forecast for economic growth is .8%,” Janjughazyan said.
He said the deepest recession was in April, due to restrictions on economic activity, which was partially eased in May. In July, economic activity subsided, but there was a softening in August.
“As for inflation, in parallel with the recovery in demand, it is expected to approach the lower level of the projected indicator of 4% (± 1.5%),”Janjughazyan said.
As for the nominal volume of 2020 GDP, according to the minister, if earlier it was projected at 7 trillion 95 billion drams, it is now obvious that it was overvalued by 1 trillion drams.
“And this is not only an Armenian phenomenon, it is typical for all countries, since the degree of uncertainty is quite high,” Janjughazyan said. ($ 1 – 493.6 drams). -0-