UN estimates that Armenia’s population will dwindle by 144,000 by 2050

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YEREVAN, April 10. /ARKA/. According to the latest UN Population Fund’s forecast, made in 2019, by 2050 Armenia’s population will decrease from the current 2, 959. 700 people to 2, 816, 000 people, Anna Hovhannisyan, coordinator of the Population and Development Program of the UN Population Fund in Armenia, said during an online discussion today.

She said the UN estimates that the population in neighboring Georgia will drop to 3,517,000 and in Russia to 135,824,000, while in Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran it will increase to 11,065,000, 97,140,000 and 103,098,000 respectively.

She also said that due to coronavirus pandemic the migration balance in Armenia in 2020 was positive for the first time since 2001, amounting to 3,300 people.

The natural increase in Armenia in 2020 was 1,070 people. When compared to the 1990 figure, one can see that the growth decreased by almost 54 times (down from 57,900). One of the reasons is the number of deaths that increased in 2020 by almost 10 thousand.

According to Anna Hovhannisyan, in 2020, in all regions of Armenia, except for Gegharkunik and the capital Yerevan, mortality exceeded the birth rate.

‘Armenia currently has the lowest birth rate in the region (1.59), however, by 2050, the birth rate is expected to fall in all neighboring countries, except Russia and Armenia. According to UN experts, the total fertility rate in Armenia in 2050 will increase from the current 1.59 to 1.77.

“In 2020, 400 more babies were born in the country than died, but the population still declined due to high mortality,” she said. Hovhannisyan paid special attention to the total fertility rate in urban and rural communities. In her words, for the first time in Armenia, as in the whole world, the total fertility rate in the rural communities is lower than in the urban ones – 1.46 in rural communities and 1.66 in urban ones.

Until 2012, in Armenia, more babies were born in villages than in cities.

According to the summarized data of 2020, it can be seen that for the first time the average age of marriage for men reached 30.5 years, and for women – 27.5 years.

“This is already a negative trend, which suggests that couples are postponing marriage, and this leads to the postponement of the birth of their first child. The number of marriages and divorces in 2020 decreased by almost 20% due to the coronavirus pandemic,” she said.

She said Armenia is considered a country with aging population as elderly citizens over 65 make 12.3% of the total, and according to UN forecasts, by 2050 this figure will grow to 22-23%.

It is also predicted that the ratio of the working population (15-64 years old) and the elderly (over 65 years old) will deteriorate. In 2019, it was 5:1; in 2050 it is expected to be 2.9:1, which will place a heavy burden on the socio-economic state and the health care system.

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