Turkish inflation expectations deteriorate for fourth month

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Turkey’s consumer price inflation rate is expected to end the year at 13.81 percent, according to a monthly central bank survey of finance industry professionals and business leaders.

Expectations rose from 13.12 percent in April, deteriorating for the fourth-straight month, the central bank said on its website on Wednesday.

The average prediction for year-end inflation stood at 11.56 percent in March, just prior to a decision by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sack the governor of the central bank.

Former governor Naci Ağbal had raised interest rates to 19 percent from 10.25 percent during his four-month term to rein in inflation. Erdoğan replaced him with Şahap Kavcıoğlu, who has sympathised with his unorthodox view that high interest rates stoke inflation.

Consumer price inflation accelerated to 17.1 percent last month, the highest level in major emerging markets outside of crisis-hit Argentina, from 16.2 percent in March.

Inflation in 12 months was seen at 11.81 percent compared with a previous prediction of 11.36 percent, the central bank said.

The Turkish lira is expected to weaken to 8.71 per dollar by the end of the year. Estimates had stood at an average 8.57 per dollar in April. The lira was expected to fall to 8.95 per dollar in 12 months.

The lira was trading down 0.2 percent at 8.33 per dollar at 10:22 a.m. local time in Istanbul. It hit an all-time low of 8.58 per dollar in early November, just priot to Ağbal’s arrival.

Kavcıoğlu has declined to say whether he will raise interest rates to curb inflation and defend the lira. The central bank will keep rates at a margin above current and expected inflation, he said last week, without providing details.

Ahval

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