Crude oil production in the United States had fallen sharply over the last two weeks in the wake of Hurricane Ida, but production for the next reporting period is on track to be down as well, as 28% of all crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still remains shut-in after the hurricane.
Meanwhile, WTI prices have risen from $69.21 per barrel as the hurricane hit, to $72.62 today—a nearly 5% rise.
Initially, the hurricane wiped out nearly all of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Today—weeks later—28.24% of Gulf of Mexico oil production is still shut in, according to BSEE, along with 39.4% of all gas production on the Gulf.
For oil, this is still more than 500,000 bpd shut in.
According to the EIA, US oil production fell from 11.5 million bpd before the hurricane to 10 million bpd for week ending September 3. Production rose a mere 100,000 bpd in the next week, ending September 10. But the next reporting period, which ends tomorrow, will also be depressed, with half a million barrels per day still offline as of Thursday.
As for when production should be back in full swing, the Energy Department anticipates that this won’t be until October—with refinery resumption taking even longer.
The supply problems are creating upward pressure on oil prices, which until very recently were concerned more with demand problems due to the coronavirus pandemic—and this fear of a lack of demand has dogged oil prices for over a year.
It seems, however, that Hurricane Ida has cured that problem for the industry—at least for now.
According to the IEA, oil supplies won’t be high enough until early next year to replenish what has recently been depleted.