Gold is in a holding pattern until investors find a fresh reason to get edgy, according to a veteran trader.
Ambrosino Brothers’ Todd Colvin told CNBC “Futures Now” last week that “$1330 to $1350 [an ounce] has really been a very comfortable range for gold. The next catalyst is probably going to come from the Fed and the U.S. economy.”
Even though Colvin believes earnings season, which just got underway, will be strong and won’t support a bull case for gold, he believes weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth could prop up prices.
“If you see sub-2 percent GDP, which I think right now isn’t on many radars, that could be a real catalyst,” he said.
Last Wednesday, gold reached its highest level since August 2016 as jitters grew over Syria and Russia — with a potential trade war with China still in the picture. Once anxiety eased, gold backed down.
Colvin, who has worked on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor for more than 20 years, isn’t ruling out a new gold spike caused by tensions abroad. He believes a tenuous geopolitical situation could push prices to $1400 in a hurry.
But holding that level could be a challenge.
“If everything calms down, it could come right back down as quickly as it went up,” he said. “Gold is a very emotional commodity.”
Right now, the yellow metal is trading around $1348. Looking at technicals, Colvin sees $1370 as a key resistance level. On the flipside, if prices trickle lower, it could entice buyers to return to the market in droves.
“If we get that close to $1330, I think you’re going to see plenty of those speculators come back with both hands to buy it,” Colvin said.