New-well oil production per rig has gained some serious ground over the last three years, increasing nearly 85% since the start of 2019, EIA data compiled by Oilprice shows.
According to the EIA’s most recent Drilling Productivity Report published on Monday, new-well oil production per rig rose to 1,142 barrels per day in December, and is expected to stay close to that figure in January, at 1,140.
While the monthly gains have been modest since the beginning of 2019—at an average gain of just 14 barrels per rig per day, it has catapulted the average production per rig per day to 1,140. This is up from 628 at the beginning of 2019—for a gain of 81%.
Production overall in the seven most prolific shale plays in the United States is also up. According to the DPR, December’s production is estimated at 8.342 million bpd, with January estimated to come in at 8.438 million bpd.
This compares to the January 2019 production of 8.117 million bpd. In the meantime, however, in January 2020, production from the seven plays had increased to 9.178 million bpd.
The EIA’s Drilled but Uncompleted Wells report (DUC) shows that the number of DUCs has been coming down, with November 2021 estimated at 4,855 rigs, down from October’s 5,081. With a loss of 105 DUCs from the Permian alone as of November’s count.
Oil production in the most prolific shale play in the United States—the Permian—is expected to increase 71,000 bpd in January to 5.031 million bpd—up from 4.960 million bpd in December.
The second most prolific basin, the Bakken, is expected to increase 8,000 bpd to reach 1.154 million bpd in January. Both the Bakken and the Permian are expected to decrease in the new-well production per rig for the month of January, with the Bakken expected to fall by 42 barrels per rig per day, and the Permian by 4 barrels per rig per day.