With just 4 months to go to the November presidential election, opinion polling is looking increasingly dire for incumbent President Donald Trump. His presumptive rival – former US Vice President Joe Biden – is beginning to surge in key battleground states.
A new poll for the upcoming 2020 presidential election in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania shows presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintaining a double-digit lead over US President Donald Trump among currently registered voters.
The poll, conducted July 9-13, shows former the vice president topping his Republican rival 53-40 percent,
Likely voters, high turnout:
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) July 15, 2020
Biden also holds the lead over Trump among ‘likely voters’ at 52-42 percent, predicting a higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election. The poll also showed a 51-44 percent split in a lower turnout model.
The survey, released Wednesday by Monmouth University, also shows that voters are evenly split over who they believe will win the Keystone State, as many polled believe communities hold a large amount of “secret” Trump voters.
57 percent of registered voters who were asked said they believe there’s a significant amount of so-called secret voters who will vote for Trump but not vocalise their support. Meanwhile, only 27 percent believe there are secret voters for Joe Biden.
“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020”, said the Monmouth University Polling Institute director, Patrick Murray.
“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016″, Murray explained.
Pennsylvania, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin, are traditionally Democratically-held states prior to 2016, when Trump narrowly claimed them for the GOP.
Biden has roots in Pennsylvania as it is his birthplace, spending his early years before moving with his family to Delaware.
Biden 52% (+15)
Trump 37%@QuinnipiacPoll 7/9-13
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 15, 2020
A poll by Rasmussen, however, showed Biden with a 3 percent lead – a 7-point collapse in a single week according to that poll.
Biden 47% (+3)
Was Biden+10 last week
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 15, 2020
Despite losing the popular vote in 2016 by a wide margin, Trump’s wins in key states saw him receive enough electoral college votes to secure the presidency, defying previous polling that showed a clear win for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.