Goldman Sachs believes that the price of oil and other commodities are set for a rebound next year and the first catalyst could come as early as this weekend at a G-20 summit in Argentina, where leaders could discuss the U.S.-China trade standoff and an OPEC idea to begin cutting production again.
“Given the size of dislocations in commodity pricing relative to fundamentals with oil now having joined metals in pricing below cost support, we believe commodities offer an extremely attractive entry point for longs in oil, gold and base,” Goldman said in a research report on Monday, as carried by CNBC.
The G-20 summit in Buenos Aires later this week will see the participation of the three key figures capable of swaying decisions regarding oil production policies—U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In addition, President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the trade war.
If the world’s top politicians reach some understandings about trade and an OPEC cut, they could offer the oil market some clarity on the current geopolitical uncertainties that have been weighing on oil prices—global economic slowdown and oil oversupply.
Many of those uncertainties have a chance to be addressed at the summit, including “some improvement on the China-U.S. relationship and like in the 2016 G-20 meetings, some greater clarity on a potential OPEC cut,” Goldman Sachs said.
Last week, the investment bank said that volatility would be high over the next few weeks, because prices would need a fundamental catalyst to stabilize.
“While we didn’t think that Brent prices were justified at $86 per barrel, neither do we believe that they are at $59/bbl with our 2019 Brent forecast at $70/bbl,” Goldman said in today’s note, quoted by Reuters.
Meanwhile, in the week to November 20, hedge funds cut their net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent Crude to the lowest level since January 2016, when oil prices crashed below $30 a barrel, according to Bloomberg estimates on data by ICE Futures Europe.