Moody’s ratings expects problem loans at Turkish banksto increase to more than 4 percent of loans over the next 12-18 months compared with a low of 2.9 percent in May, the ratings agency said in a statement on July 16.
Turkey’s Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Authority (BDDK) released problem loan data for the week that ended June 29.
The data showed a 7 percent (or $800 million) increase from the prior week, the largest weekly jump in more than 10 years.
A number of drivers point to a significant increase in banks’ problem-loan ratio, according to Moody’s.
“We expect Turkey’s GDP growth to slow to 2.5 percent this year and 2 percent in 2019, from a credit-fuelled 7.4 percent last year. The Turkish lira has depreciated about 25 percent year to date against the U.S. dollar, putting negative pressure on companies with unhedged foreign-exchange debt, particularly in the construction and energy sectors,” it added.
A strong, consistent rise in problem loans would also weaken asset quality and require larger loan-loss provisions, it also noted.