Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is considering further military action in northwestern Syria to battle Kurdish militants, a move that faces opposition from Russia, which controls the airspace in the region, and a resurgent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, former Turkish Foreign Minister Yaşar Yakış said.
Russia has already expressed clear unease at last week’s announcement by Erdoğan of the possible armed intervention, which was accompanied by criticism of Moscow and the United States for their failure to tackle the threat to Turkey’s security posed by the Kurds, Yakış said in an op-ed for Eurasia Review on Monday.
Erdoğan may demonstrate how determined he is to carry out the operation after talks with U.S. President Joe Biden at a meeting of the G20 on Oct. 30-31 in Rome, Yakış said.
“Ankara enjoys Washington’s support in Idlib against Russian cooperation with the Syrian government, but it is at odds with the same U.S. regarding almost unlimited support Washington extends to the Syrian Kurds,” Yakış said.
“In light of this background, Erdoğan will probably refrain from launching a military operation until the Rome meeting. If he is disappointed at the outcome of his talks with Biden, he may still resort to such an action,” he said.
Yakış said Turkey’s ability to intervene in Syria is rendered more difficult by the changing international approach towards Damascus. The Arab League has adopted a more conciliatory stance toward the government of President Bashar al-Assad returning to the diplomatic fold, while the UAE has been re-opening its embassy in Syria’s capital of Damascus. Overall, the international community is more accepting of Assad remaining in power, he said.
“If Turkey is unhappy with the terrorist attacks directed at its territory, there is already a framework to deal with such threats. It is the Adana Agreement, signed in 1998 between Turkey and Syria,” Yakış said. “It provides for cooperation between the two countries to fight terrorism. This agreement was recalled by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Sochi summit of 2019. To use this agreement, Turkey has to cease to regard the Syrian regime as an illegitimate entity.”
Putin’s attitude will be of paramount importance to Erdoğan as he considers the military action, Yakış said.
“Russia is testing Turkey’s performance in disarming opposition fighters in Idlib while it ignores the promises it made in Sochi in 2019 to expel the Kurdish fighters from Tell Rifaat in northern Aleppo,” he said. “When Turkey and Russia negotiate a solution, they usually manage to meet on the middle ground, but if they engage in an arm-twisting exercise Russia has a greater chance of emerging victorious.”
Yakış served as foreign minister of Turkey between 2002 and 2003. He is a founding member of Erdoğan’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Ahval