The strategic relationship between the House of Saud and the US Administration is worsening by the day, as shown by repeated unexpected changes in president Biden’s approach to the Kingdom and its rulers. The US military debacle in Afghanistan, the pictures of which have been widely published, has caused severe stress in the minds of Arab leaders. While Washington repeatedly states that the Afghanistan move is not linked to broader US military and economic involvement in the Middle East (and North Africa), the chaos at Kabul airport has shocked the regimes of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and even Qatar. Washington’s unilateral actions in Afghanistan appear to have severely damaged the fundamentals of US influence in the Persian Gulf. If Afghanistan turns out to be a one-off event, there will be limited negative repercussions for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Egypt, but some Washington insiders believe it is the start of something larger. All eyes are now focused on the US position in Iraq and its active involvement in Syria and Libya. Arab assessments are rather negative, expecting an all-out American military retraction in the coming months. Despite the use of honeyed diplomatic statements by the Biden Administration, the real developments on the ground are worrying. Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are sure to be on edge in the coming weeks. The US’ apparent decision to put its long-term strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia under pressure is a surprising one. It has been confirmed that the US has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. The removal of the defense system was done despite repeated requests made by Saudi officials and royals to keep the weapon systems in place to counter continued air attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The Yemeni rebels, who are officially designated as terrorists and widely known to be supported by Iran, have been stepping up their rocket and drone attacks on Saudi civil and commercial targets (airports and oil and gas targets) again. The US unilateral decision to redeploy the anti-missile systems and Patriots from Prince Sultan Air Base outside of Riyadh is remarkable, especially taking into account that most US-Gulf allies are worried about the fall-out of the Afghanistan disaster. Analysts in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain are also very worried about possible new US plans to even remove large parts of the tens of thousands of American forces in the region, now in place as a bulwark against Iran and possible insurgencies. Biden’s focus on his new military power theatre in Asia is the underlying basis for the ongoing troop movements. Most Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are especially worried due to the unsuccessful Iran JCPOA talks, leaving Tehran in a position to increase its nuclear programs.
For most Gulf Arabs, but also Egypt, the new Biden moves are a clear continuation of the Obama-Trump strategies, which shows a possible end to the US military and security involvement. Since Biden took office, the US-Saudi relationship has soured dramatically. Biden’s pressure (or even perceived attacks) on OPEC to open up the valves as gasoline prices in the US went up, combined with his continuation of the JCPOA discussions have severely cooled Saudi (and Emirati) love for Washington. Biden’s push to open up the 9/11 files in the coming weeks, the first batch having already been published, has only added to Saudi discontent. Washington’s obsession with MBS as the mastermind behind the Kashoggi murder has pushed the Kingdom’s rulers into a corner. At the same time, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who is on a tour of the Gulf, stated that he has indefinitely postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia. Officials at the Pentagon said that this was due to “scheduling issues”, but no Saudi will believe that. The fact that the US SecDef was able to visit Doha, Kuwait, and even Bahrain, but not Riyadh is a clear affront. Saudi Arabia remains the most powerful US ally in the region, and recent US moves in the region are unlikely to go unanswered. Anger in Riyadh could become costly for Washington in the long run. Last week, Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief and well-connected in Washington, warned the Biden Administration that the Kingdom and the Middle East need to be reassured of American commitment. He openly criticized a possible withdrawal of Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi Arabia is the victim of missile attacks and drone attacks, not just from Yemen, but from Iran. A lack of trust is emerging that is sure to hold negative results for US and Western interests. Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council, stated in an opinion piece that the situation in Afghanistan threatens U.S. President Joe Biden’s narrative that Washington is “once again a reliable ally and partner, following the uncertainties that grew among them during the Trump administration.” Biden’s move to widespread declassification of documents relating to the September 11, 2001 attacks will also have major repercussions. Even if no anti-Saudi facts emerge, the continuing media and political barrage on the Kingdom is likely to force it to reassess its position.
In the coming months, a major geopolitical and economic shift will emerge in the Gulf region. The already weakened US position is clear, and Biden does not appear to be enhancing American interests. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others will be looking for new power players, and some are already knocking at the door (Russia, China). While a complete loss of influence in the region is unlikely, the impact of statements coming from Washington has certainly diminished. The Kingdom’s ongoing reorientation to the East is being pushed by Washington, opening the doors for Moscow, Beijing, and Delhi. OPEC+ policies will also be impacted by Biden’s moves, as the Kingdom, Abu Dhabi, and Moscow hold new power in their hands. A stronger OPEC+ or China (Moscow/India)-GCC relationship will be more costly for Washington than Biden’s Administration appears to understand. The Energy-Military-Economic Nexus still exists, but now with other players holding the strings. Ultimately, hydrocarbons still fuel the military and the global economy, and Biden is playing a dangerous game.