Spain’s BBVA is the international lender most exposed to Turkey, deriving a third of its pre-tax profits from a country where the currency is losing against the U.S. dollar and euro, and inflation is in double-digits, ABN AMRO analysts have said.
ABN Amro strategist Tom Kinmonth estimated global bank exposures to Turkey at roughly $225 billion but said “BBVA sits on the frontline of impact.”
“(BBVA) has generated some strong returns from Turkey over the years, and has increased its exposure with an ever increasing stake in the Turkish Garanti Bank,” Kinmonth said, noting that 31 percent of 2017 pre-tax profits had come from operations in Turkey.
“Whichever measure is used, the BBVA exposure to Turkey is hefty,” he added.
In February 2017, BBVA upped its stake in Turkey’s Garanti Bank to just under 50 percent.
According to figures from BBVA‘s first quarter financial report, Turkey is its fourth-biggest market in terms of net profit after Mexico, Spain and South America – slightly ahead even of the United States. BBVA booked a net profit of 201 million euros ($235.4 million) in Turkey in the first three months of the year compared with 195 million euros in the United States.
Kinmonth said BBVA was followed by Unicredit in terms of vulnerability to Turkey, while Dutch financial services company ING, Europe’s biggest bank HSBC and France’s BNP were also exposed.
Turkey had been highly profitable for many foreign banks in recent years, with galloping loan growth and extremely high net interest margins, ABN AMRO said, estimating BBVA‘s Turkish loan book had earned a 4.19 percent net interest margin compared with just 1.18 percent in Spain.
Now however, there are fears the economy is overheating and the lira’s 22 percent slump this year is increasing pressure on companies and banks with hard-currency loans, as well as foreign entities which are exposed to them.
Credit ratings agencies have flagged the risk to the country’s financial sector — Fitch late last week cut Turkey’s sovereign credit rating deeper into junk and warned of a hit to the banking sector’s performance.
And rival agency Moody’s forecasts problem loans at Turkish banks will increase to more than 4 percent of loans over the next 12-18 months, off a low of 2.9 percent in May.
Turkey is unlikely however to cause problems to most global banks, the ABN Amro report said, adding that “once the exposures of the aforementioned five banks are excluded, the impact for other European banks is minimal.”
The Turkish Lira has fallen to record lows this year while borrowing costs have surged.