YEREVAN, January 12. /ARKA/. The year 2021 is going to be a period of Great Depression for Armenia, Vahe Davtyan, Professor at the Russian-Armenian University, says on his Facebook page.
According to him, Russia is expected to provide Armenia with a loan of $1.15 billion (to cover the debt for arms supplies during the last war in Karabakh). Armenia is also expected to borrow $400 million from the International Monetary Fund (MF) under the stand-by arrangement.
“Over the past two years, Armenia’s state has surged to $8 billion and, according to rough estimates, with new loans, this year it is likely to reach $9.5 billion,” Davtyan says, adding that Armenia’s GDP is expected to amount to $12.8 billion.
He says according to estimates of international financial institutions and a number of key think tanks, for countries with a low level of institutional development, the best size of public debt should not exceed 37-38% of GDP.
“Taking into account the institutional crisis in the country and the uncontrollable chaos, it can be argued that 2021 will be a period of Great Depression for all of us, which can only be overcome through the earliest possible liberation from the treacherous regime and militant dilettantes who have seized power and formation of a government of technocrats,” Davtyan said.
According to the World Bank, Armenia’s economy will contract by 8% in 2020, and grow by 3.1% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. The IMF predicts a 7.25% decline in Armenia’s GDP by the end of 2020, and 1% growth in 2021.
The government’s growth projection for this year is 3.2%. Inflation is projected to be (± 1.5%).