Amirabdollahian’s visit to Damascus has larger regional implications.
https://www.jpost.com/-By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in Damascus, Syria, January 14, 2023.(photo credit: SYRIAN PRESIDENCY/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran’s Foreign Minister, arrived in Damascus over the weekend, according to Iranian media and other reports. Iran’s Tasnim News, which is considered close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, noted that he was continuing his “regional trip” from Beirut and had landed in Damascus.
The “latest developments in Syria, especially in relation to Ankara and the development of economic and social relations between Iran and Syria, was one of the most important topics of the dialogue between the foreign ministers of Iran and Syria,” according to Iranian media. The reference to Turkey relates to earlier stories over the last several days in which Iran has expressed its support for Turkey to reconcile with the Syrian regime. Turkey, Iran and Russia are part of the Astana process that is supposed to bring some kind of peace to Syria after years of war. This is a peace that will be at the expense of most of the people of Syria, but nevertheless, this is what the regional powers want. They also want to remove the US from Syria.
Regarding Israel, the three countries; Iran, Turkey and Russia, have differing views. Iran is a foe of Israel and wants to use Syria as a launchpad to target Israel. Russia wants to preserve the Syrian regime and use it for influence in the region. Turkey wants to remove US forces and attack Kurds in Syria. Turkey has increasingly hinted it wants better ties with Israel, but it is unclear if Iran’s backing of Turkey working with the Syrian regime is designed to get Iran and Turkey back on the same page in Damascus, backing Hezbollah and bashing Israel.
Amirabdollahian’s visit to Damascus has larger regional implications. It relates to Iran’s support for Hezbollah and Iran’s attempt to gauge where the Syrian regime is in terms of the regime’s ability to influence Turkey and the region. Syria would like to see more high-level Iranian visits, including by Iran’s president. Iran, which is isolated, also wants to be involved in more regional dealmaking. What does this mean? Iran plays a role in Iraq and there have been talks in Iraq with other countries in the region. Iran sees Iraq as a pathway to discussions with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Iran also knows that the Gulf states are keen on repairing relations with Syria. Here Iran thinks its support of the Syrian regime could pay off.
Iran reduces oil exports to Syria
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Iran has reduced its supply of cheap oil to Syria. This means that Iran no longer feels it needs to supplement the economic failure of the Syrian regime and help the Syrian people. It wants to squeeze Syria now because Iran is also suffering economic problems. Syria’s regime cannot afford higher prices and it’s not clear what this means for Damascus. Perhaps Iran will ask Syria to “pay” in some other way, such as hosting more drones and missiles that can threaten Israel. It’s entirely plausible that Iran’s overall goals remain hidden and that, if reports are true that Iran is asking for more money for oil up front, that other plans are afoot.